đ Car Talk - Issue #21(Flying Cars - Part 2)
Hi friends
In this issue, I revive flying cars as well as cover exciting developments in new mobility that caught my eye.
Buckle up!
Flying Cars Are For Fat Cats
Almost three months ago, I covered flying cars (âurban air mobilityâ, or UAM, if you want to sound sophisticated) for the first time in CarTalk. The takeaway, back then, was that thereâs a lot of froth around investing in this space, with governments stepping up as well to offer guidelines for urban air mobility. However, based on the studies I reviewed, I concluded that these flying cars are neither good from a sustainability perspective, nor for society at large.
Iâve been keeping an eye on the space and it warrants a check-in a quarter later. First up - the World Economic Forum released a âroadmap of principlesâ last week called Principles Of the Urban Sky to support UAM. Hereâs the thing I realized upon a closer read, thereâs no âroadâ (pun..intended?), no âmapâ, no timeline, just a couple of well-intentioned bullet points:
Image source: World Economic Forum at https://bit.ly/2FRx8sq
Within this framework, âEquity of accessâ caught my eye particularly because thatâs what I railed against in the past. If UAM somehow reaches economies of scale where it can move the masses, wouldnât that be something? Curious to hear how the WEF imagines us getting there, I soldiered on to find this:
âAlthough private stakeholders reiterated that urban aerial mobility will likely operate as a premium priced service at the outset, providers should be able to outline a longer-term plan for affordable consumer pricing.â
âShould be able toâ meaning - âthey got thisâ? Or âthey better do this to save face?â Kept on reading:
âThough a low-cost service for most users in the short-term may not be possible, providing a road map to affordability that considers a three-phased model (crawl, walk, run phases) for development and implementation over the next decade will demonstrate industry actorsâ commitment to this principle.â
WTF WEF? I thought you guys were the ones providing a roadmap here.
Think Tanks are lame. Iâd rather look to an operator (a âDo Tankâ?) who might do something. The news there? Ehh, mixed.
Boeing (which knows a thing or two about flying) suspended its R&D unit focused on manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. Why? Boeing stock has taken a nosedive recently (indulge me) and massive headwinds from the 737 Max crisis (plz) means the company canât afford projects like flying cars with no line-of-sight to profitability.
Volocopter is taking deposits for a $355 flight that will last 20 minutes and might take place 2-3 years from now. Or might not. One of their investors is Daimler (take a mental note - they show up later in CarTalk).
GM is said to be looking at the aerial mobility market too. The idea is to use their Ultium battery system to power not just electric cars, but electric airplanes too. GM might be resorting to a spray-and-pray philosophy with new mobility, it is starting to dawn upon me. Their recently partnership with Nikola, which is not having a good time recently, is indicative of this trend.
In summary, the operators in the UAM space arenât inspiring too much confidence either. Bummer.
In all seriousness, Iâd love for UAM to move a meaningful number of people across all socio-economic strata, not just to move the top 0.001% as they take flying cars from Zurich to Davos to present roadmaps like the one above to other Davos Men.
Iâm still looking to change my views on UAM. Till then, Iâll end with a meme that distills how I feel about this space right now:
Source: frustration, and too many hours spent watching Friends.
Mobility In the US
âDaimlerâs dirty diesel defeat device dealâ: How do you beat a headline like that? But on the heels of VWâs Dieselgate comes Daimlerâs deceit. About 250,000 cars emitting more noxious fumes than they should when tested under âreal world conditionsâ. Daimler will have to pony up $1.5B to make this right. Maybe their investment in Volocopter will pay back for it, or maybe this is why Daimler issued âgreen bondsâ recently? Link
Speaking of âreal world conditionsâ: When tested under real-world driving conditions, Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) emit 2.5x higher carbon dioxide than official tests suggest. n=20,000 in this study, which makes you sit up and take notice! Link
Lyftâs machine learning based approach to motion planning: A very accessible article on where Lyft does and does not use machine learning today. When it comes to perception (ingesting inputs from the various sens0rs), it is ML galore. When it comes to path planning today, Lyft claims to use no ML. Theyâre looking to fix this by training their models on huge âreal worldâ datasets acquired by their own fleet. Link
Climate change will transform the United States: CarTalk loves data visualizations and this amazing link will let you explore how the many wraths of nature (wild fires, hurricanes, hot fronts, rising sea levels, etc.) will transform living in the United States over the next couple of decades. The take-away I took from this: move to Denver. Take a look yourself. Link
Fordâs electric F-150: For readers not in the US, it is hard to fathom why/how Fordâs F-150 sells as well as it does. In a market crowded by many imminent electric pickup trucks, it was just a matter of time that Ford would throw its name into the hat too. The electric truck launches mid-2022. Link
Trevor Milton is Out: I have nothing new to add to this implosion other than Iâve figured out who will play Milton when they make the Hollywood version of this saga - Andy Dwyer from Parks & Rec! I canât be the only one who sees the semblance between Trevor Milton and Chris Pratt, right?
Trevor Milton, during a Nikola board meeting.
Mobility Around The World
China bets big on Hydrogen: While here in the US hydrogen is not having a good week, China is rolling out policies to bolster H2-vehicle sales directly. Preceding this news, SAIC (a Chinese OEM) announced the launch of hydrogen vehicles too. Hydrogen, unlike battery electric mobility, still requires massive investments to set up the distribution networks and at this stage of the technology adoption curve, it makes sense for the funding to come from public initiatives rather than private ones. Link
EUâs new climate plan will hasten the demise of gas cars : âUnder a tighter climate target for 2030, European automakers would need to embrace tougher pollution standards, with new rules that could retire combustion engines to science museums.â Wow. Link
Good Reads / New Research
32 million ride hailing trips: is why this research article caught my attention. The sample size is non-negligible! The main takeaway from the data-crunching exercise was that 61% of ride-hailing trips were between highly walkable areas. This is a bummer and puts the kibosh on how ride-hailing is green and environmentally friendly. Link
The Age of Electric Cars Is Dawning Ahead of Schedule: A really great piece in the New York Times rounding up all the advancements and timelines in the world of new mobility. Nothing here should not be news for CarTalk readers, but a good summary of this space nonetheless. Link
Thanks to Animish S. for sharing the Propublica link on climate change.
Thatâs all from me folks! Have a great week!
By Sachin Seth
This weekly newsletter on new mobility is curated by me as a passion project. Yes, the name is an homage to the NPR show of the same name! If you like it, please forward it to whoever is interested in this space. Cheers!
I have worked for many years on automotive products and currently work @ Tesla. All opinions are my own.
If you don't want these updates anymore, please unsubscribe here.
If you were forwarded this newsletter and you like it, you can subscribe here.
Powered by Revue