🚗 Car Talk - Issue #44 (Ford, Bolt, eVTOLs)
Hi friends
I’m writing this issue on a Sunday morning while watching the Monaco F-1 grand prix. It’s a gorgeous venue but I can’t help wonder when Formula E (electric race cars) will become the main draw at Monaco, while ICE race cars are relegated to ceremonial laps. My sincere hope is - within this decade!
I hope you have as much fun reading this issue as I had writing it.
Buckle up!
Let's Talk About Ford, Baby
You’d have to be living under a rock to not know that Ford announced an electric version of their famous F-150 truck, the Lightning. The specs are covered marvelously here. Key selling points of the cheapest/base trim:
$39,974 (+ a mandatory delivery fee of around $2k, est.)
230 miles of range
Dual motor
Carries 2000 lbs, tows 7700 lbs
Can be enjoyed some time in 2022
Everyone loved the truck.. Including President Biden.
President Biden pulls up to the press while test driving Ford’s F-150 Lightning pickup https://t.co/ZyTEaP9jlg
The product is compelling, there is no questioning that. The biggest reason is the price point of $40k (with a $7.5k federal credit potentially knocking down prices even further). However, as with any of these automotive launches, I wish the media was more precise with what customers get for their money.
It was widely reported that the Lightning truck can output 9.6 kW of power and run your home appliances for 3 days during a power outage. However, this much-lauded feature does not apply to the $40k model at all. It only applies to the Lariat and Platinum trims, which costs a hell of a lot more. Car and Driver estimates that:
The better-equipped Lariat and Platinum versions of the F-150 Lightning will be more expensive. We’re estimating that they will start around $59,000 for the Lariat and $70,000 for the Platinum
So a customer will pay an additional $20k for a 9.6 kW energy storage solution. If they just got a large LG battery to put in their garage, a fully installed 9.6kW would cost them $10-11k. If you’re really worried about power outages, there are cheaper ways to address that!
The XLT trim (still $13k higher than the base model) can output 2.4 kW of power, enough to run your house for a couple of hours. I’m not sure if the base $40k model has any Vehicle-T0-Load capabilities.
Pay $13k extra to enjoy 2.4kW Vehicle-to-load output, and a hell of a lot more to enjoy 9.6kW.
For what its worth, my thoughts on Vehicle-to-Load are captured here. TL;DR - I don’t get it, hence am not impressed by this spec.
Okay, running jackhammers off of your truck aside, there is charging of the batteries to consider. The base trim comes with a 32A charger that charges the 230 mile battery in 14 hours when plugged in at home. When plugged at a “supercharger”, it takes 45 mins to go from 15% to 80% charge. That could be a pain point for customers, specially if job sites are far. Faster charging is reserved for the more expensive trim, and even then its not all that fast. (Electrify America’s 150 kW chargers being the limiters here)
The 80A charger comes standard with the more expensive Lariat and Platinum.
Up next, Ford’s hands-free driving system called BlueCruise. Good luck getting that on the $40k F-150. Again, it is reserved for the pricier trims.
Center screen? A 15.5 incher for the expensive trims, a 12-inch capacitive touchscreen for the base model.
I’ll stop. I understand the applause and adulation around the announcement of the truck-for-the-masses. I wasn’t a fan of how the media portrayed the launch because:
There is a lot of unproven technology that is being touted. I hope it works right out of the box.
Once you start adding what it’ll cost you to enjoy all the touted features, you’re looking at eye-watering figures.
For what its worth, I saw the same issues when Lucid held their event. I even wrote about it.
I’ll wait for mass production to start and will hope that the truck meets announced specs. The first Mach-Es had software issues. Not a big deal, but hoping Ford applies the learning for a smoother Lightning launch.
Last word on the $7.5k federal credit - I’d be highly surprised if those buying the $40k truck are eligible for the credit. Remember that this credit phases out once an OEM produces 200k vehicles. With the Mach-E already under production and Ford launching the higher-end trims first to capture the highest margin customer, the everyday Joe out in Nebraska might never get to see the $7.5k credit.
All said, I’d consider it a success if this electric truck pulls more non-coastal Americans into the EV ecosystem. There’s a lot of work to be done in the heartland. And if anyone can pull that off, it is Ford!
Also in other Ford news:
Ford and South Korea’s SK Innovation are announcing a joint-venture to produce 60 GWh battery capacity annually Link
Ford is considering divesting electric scooter company Spin. Still rumors, so we’ll leave it at that. Link
Sunrun will partner with Ford to install 80A home-charging stations for the most expensive Lightning trims Link
Ford’s Over-the-air connectivity system, which they are calling PowerUp, will be available to higher-end trims Link
Ford’s in-car patent will look at a billboard ad and display it on your infotainment screen. Gosh I hope this feature dies in the lab. Link
Ford stock? Up 10% in the past week.
Mobility In The US
Bird is going public: >100 cities. >10 million rides. $2.3 Billion valuation. Profitable in….2023. Pitch deck - as always, caveat emptor. In the past, Bird used to purchase, maintain, and deploy its own scooter fleets. During the pandemic, the company began shifting away from this business model and instead refocused on empowering independent fleet managers to own and operate their own scooter fleets. This allowed Bird to expand into smaller markets, which Bird claims have better economics than larger, existing markets. How it works. Link to SPAC announcement
eVTOLs (aka flying taxis): Haven’t been a fan for a while, don’t see that changing either. In a research paper I came across recently, I learnt that the West doesn’t do a good job of managing aviation pollution. From this paper:
We find that, first, the emissions per capita are significantly higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Second, the distribution of emissions in developed countries is disperse, while the emissions in developing countries are concentrated within a limited number of large cities.
Solution is battery-operated aerial vehicles, yeah? No.
Morgan Stanley lowered their Total Addressable Market estimate for flying taxis by 33% - from $1.5T to $1T. Not only that, they outline significant new regulatory hurdles that investors must account for.
The workhorse of an electric flying taxi - the battery - has a long way to go too. One might think - a battery is a battery is a battery. Alas, no. We’re spending resources perfecting the battery for, specifically, electric vehicles. The batteries for flying taxis are a whole another beast altogether:
Just like batteries for EVs and stationary storage are apples and oranges, so are the batteries for EVs and flying taxis.
Lastly, I came across more research around demand/supply and equity around flying taxis:
Results show that optimistically low fares must be offered to have adequate demand.
As fares increase, the system becomes more dependent on high-income earners.
From Day 1, my worry has been that eVTOLs will remain toys for the rich. Nothing I’ve read since has lead me to change my mind. Meanwhile, Lillium is going public. As is Archer. Also Joby Aviation. Is this pets.com all over again? Or are they sleeper hits like Facebook? (still regret missing that train many years ago)
Long story short, still not sold on eVTOLs. You know what is a cool eVTOL application though? Ingenuity - NASA’s flying helicopter that will hover over Martian terrain. Now that’s cool!
Uber, Lyft and being forced to go green: In California, 90% of miles logged by Uber and Lyft have to be on EVs by 2030, says CARB. Makes little sense - Uber and Lyft aren’t fleet managers who own their own vehicles, they are just a platform connecting riders with drivers. They’ve already announced EV drivers will earn more per trip (mostly subsidized by the riders). I don’t know what CARB is thinking here. Link
It’s in the NY Times now: Lordstowne and Nikola seem slightly less than 100% legit. As much as I love the NYT, if they are reporting on a business news, it has usually been a known fact for weeks. Another report which highlighted that EV SPACs have lost more than $40 Billion in market cap since IPO. Older CarTalk readers will recall I was tracking these funky SPACs in every issue but had to give up after a while. Link
Mobility Around The World
Bolt’s micromobility rates are too good to be true: Bolt rolled out in blitz in nine German cities:
Bolt will offer rides for as little as 0.05 euros ($0.06) per minute with no unlocking fee, undercutting competitors that typically charge 1 euro per trip plus 15-25 euro cents a minute.
So, a 10 minute Bolt ride will cost 60 cents. In comparison in the US, Lime scooters charge $1 to unlock and $0.15/minute thereafter. A 10 min Lime ride will cost you $2.50 (>4x more expensive than Bolt).
How is Bolt able to pull this off?
Asked how Bolt could compete so aggressively on price, Villig said it was able to spread the cost of services including ride hailing, electric bicycles, food and parcel delivery and car sharing across its technology platform.
This sounds suspiciously like the Q1 narrative from Uber, where one successful business was propping up another:
Delivery revenue outperformed its core ride-hailing business at $1.7 billion, compared with $853 million. The company has relied on its delivery services to make up for lost transit during the pandemic.
Do Bolt’s low prices pass the sniff test? I’m not really convinced. Are they just throwing cash to grow exponentially? Keeping a close eye on this. Any pointers welcome! Link
Geely’s 8 reasons why battery swaps are the future for EVs: Link
Related: IEEE Spectrum (one of my fav publications) writes about battery swapping: “Swap this technological dead-end out for better batteries, improved superchargers and more universal EV charging standards” Ooof. Spicy. Link
Also related: My prior write-up on battery swapping. I’m also not a huge fan. Link
Electric cars will be cheaper than ICE to produce by 2025: … if lawmakers introduce measures like tighter vehicle CO2 targets and strong support for charging infrastructure. Big If. Link
India could be the cheapest manufacturer of cells: As a result of heavy subsidies introduced recently, the cost per cell could drop to $65/kWh ($27/kWh reduction from subsidies). From BNEF:
Source: https://www.bnef.com/login?r=%2Finsights%2F22165
Good Reads
Excellent twitter thread on the battery recycling landscape:
2 trends right now with potential to significantly affect the future battery recycling landscape:
-Battery/cathode producers' integration of recycling in their upstream activities
-Battery producers' direct involvement in BaaS (Batteries-as-a-service)
https://t.co/waJPac4KkQ
While on battery recycling, LFP batteries are going to be hard to recycle: LFP (short for lithium iron phosphate) is a great contender for mass-market EVs thanks to its low cost and impressive life cycle. The main advantage of LFP lies not in what it has, but what it lacks: nickel and cobalt. However (and this was the mind==blown moment for me):
“As the cobalt content of battery chemistries reduces over time, and materials like LFP gain in popularity, the value that can be recovered from materials drops. This makes the economics of recycling more challenging.“
Recovering Nickel and Cobalt is what makes money for the recyclers. Recovering Iron from LFP batteries? Little value there - Iron is abundant and can be mined cheaply. This article gave me a lot to think about. Link
Related: What happens to all the dead batteries. Link
Because most major automotive OEMs are doing their own LIDAR: ..or eschewing LIDARs entirely, I’ve said in the past that pure-play LIDAR companies will have to pretend to pivot to industrial and robotic applications. The CEO of Velodyne took to Twitter to do just that:
There is a growing commitment by governments worldwide to rebuild outdated transportation #infrastructure systems. Leading the way is the 2.25 trillion-dollar proposal by the Biden Administration to invest in the modernization of vehicles, roads and transit systems. (1/7) $VLDR
Chip shortage forces carmakers to cut features: No GPS and Infotainment screens for you, young man! Link
10x return on investment for building bike lanes: It passes the sniff test. Let’s face it - I just want this to be true, even if it isn’t. Link
Deloitte study on automotive consumer trends: Link
In China, one in 5 cars in big cities is electric: Link
That’s all from me folks. Have a great week!
By Sachin Seth
This weekly newsletter on new mobility is curated by me as a passion project. Yes, the name is an homage to the NPR show of the same name! If you like it, please forward it to whoever is interested in this space. Cheers!
I have worked for many years on automotive products and currently work @ Tesla. All opinions are my own.
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