Good summary of the tech. However there is a big error in your "Pack cost over its lifetime" calculation.
You assume 365 cycles per year, which is one per day. The $29USD per month plan gives 630km of range. 630km would be just over 4 battery swaps per month with the 150-170km range on a 2 battery scooter. Or 1 swap per week, rather than 1 per day.
If someone drives the full 150-170km per day they will need to pay for a more expensive plan.
Diving recharging cost by 7 reduces the pack cost over lifetime from $1098 to $404.
It should also be noted that this is a $29USD per month 2 battery plan. Which means $174 of yearly revenue per battery, rather than the $124 calculated (which must assume most users having cheaper plans).
This increases the pack revenue for this usage rate from $1240 to $1740.
With these numbers lifetime profit should be closer to $1336 than $142.
However, I think your estimate for pack cost is a bit generous. So I'd estimate ~$1000.
Good summary of the tech. However there is a big error in your "Pack cost over its lifetime" calculation.
You assume 365 cycles per year, which is one per day. The $29USD per month plan gives 630km of range. 630km would be just over 4 battery swaps per month with the 150-170km range on a 2 battery scooter. Or 1 swap per week, rather than 1 per day.
If someone drives the full 150-170km per day they will need to pay for a more expensive plan.
Diving recharging cost by 7 reduces the pack cost over lifetime from $1098 to $404.
It should also be noted that this is a $29USD per month 2 battery plan. Which means $174 of yearly revenue per battery, rather than the $124 calculated (which must assume most users having cheaper plans).
This increases the pack revenue for this usage rate from $1240 to $1740.
With these numbers lifetime profit should be closer to $1336 than $142.
However, I think your estimate for pack cost is a bit generous. So I'd estimate ~$1000.